NBA DFS Breakdown (Monday, April 18): Target Huge Toronto Stocks
Monday includes a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the best games using FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, remember that for large field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to create your lineups at the hand.
Note: Leverage projections and scores/ratings may change throughout the day after the publication of this article. The NBA DFS landscape is changing rapidly. Check player models directly for any updates as we get closer to lockdown.
Donovan Mitchell finished with 32 points, six rebounds, six assists, a block and a steal in Saturday’s win over the Mavs without Luka, and Spida is expected to keep rolling for Game 2. Dallas is unlikely to return Doncic for Game 2, and the Jazz can take a massive 2-0 lead heading home with a win tonight. Mitchell should be highly motivated to put on a show in this one.
He’s scored at least 32 points in three of five meetings with Dallas this season while averaging just over a fantastic 40 points per game. His cap is 60 fancy points, and he could be overlooked tonight in favor of cheaper, chalkier options like Jordan Poole, Tyrese Maxey or Spencer Dinwiddie.
Poole had 30 points, three pennies and a board in Saturday’s Game 1 victory, keeping Poole Party after posting 25.4 points, 5.5 assists and 4.3 boards in the last 20 games of the regular season.
Poole started Saturday’s win, while Stephen Curry played just 22 minutes off the bench and the Warriors won comfortably. The Warriors coaching staff shouldn’t be rushing Curry into big minutes right away, and Game 1 showed that Golden State was doing just fine without him in the starting lineup. As a result, I would expect Poole to stay in the starting lineup. It costs $7,900 on DraftKings but only $6,300 on FanDuel, making it an excellent value on that site. It is worth eating the chalk.
Maxey left in Game 1 on Saturday, scoring a game-high 38 points with four rebounds, two assists and no turnovers. The points were just a career high as he led his team to a blowout 20 points against the visiting Raptors.
The Raps will probably be without Gary Trent Jr. and Scottie Barnes, so offense might be even easier to find in Game 2. Maxey is $6,400 on DraftKings (no change from Saturday) and $6,900 on FanDuel (up $1,000 from see you Saturday). That’s a ridiculously low price for a guy who just turned 38.
James Harden put up 22 points, 14 assists, five rebounds, a block and a steal in Saturday’s win, good for a fantastic 54 points. At $9,300 on DraftKings and $9,700 on FanDuel, he’s perfectly capable of returning 5-7 times worth tonight.
In four games with Toronto this season, he has scored at least a fantastic 50 points twice and nearly tripled in three games. As mentioned above, the Raptors will be missing two of their best defensemen, which will make Harden’s life a little easier. Harden has shot just 37.2% from the field in his last 10 regular season games and 6 of 17 in Game 1. He has shot better than 47% in each of his last two postseason games (21 games). combined), so there’s optimism that positive regression is inbound.
Reggie Bullock had 15 points, six rebounds, two steals and a penny in a team-leading 44 minutes in Game 1. Bullock has played at least 35 minutes in 15 games this season, and he has averaged a fantastic 25.9 points in those competitions, including 27.8 in home games. . The 3-and-D wing should be online for as much playing time as he can manage in Game 2, making it huge value.
Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson each played at least 40 minutes in the opener and featured prominently in attack with Doncic sidelined. Brunson had a 34.4% usage rating but shot only 9 of 24. Dinwiddie had a 35.1% usage rating and was 6 of 15. Both went for at least 20 points, five assists and four rebounds, although there was plenty of meat on the bone due to the poor shooting. Expect the two to be heavily involved again.
Tobias Harris left 6/26/6 with a steal and block in Saturday’s win. It was an encouraging performance considering his inconsistent end to the season after Harden’s arrival. Tobi has had some good games against the Raptors this season, posting his first career triple-double with a performance on 12/19/10 on Dec. 28.
Yuta Watanabe is the minimum wage at both sites ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) and the numbers to see a significant increase in playing time with Trent and Barnes set to miss tonight’s contest. Watanabe has only played four games all season with at least 25 minutes, but he has averaged a fantastic 25.8 points in those contests, including 33.8 in two road contests.
Note: Watanabe is eligible for SG/SF on DraftKings and SG on FanDuel
Dorian Finney Smith had 14 points, five rebounds, two blocks, an assist and a steal in Game 1 in 44 minutes. He averaged 25.0 Fantasy points per game over the last 12 games of the regular season and had at least 30 Fantasy points five times. Expect more big DFS minutes tonight.
Pascal Siakam should be busy in Game 2 with Barnes and Trent and Young Thaddeus doubtful. Spicy P ended the season on a high note and he played well in Game 1 with 24 points, seven cents, three boards and three blocks.
If Toronto hopes to steal a game on the road, Siakam will need to be at his best. We’ve seen his eye-popping numbers on full display lately, as Siakam finished the regular season with three consecutive games of 60 or more fantastic points and two games with at least 70 fantastic points in his last seven.
Precious Achiuwa had a productive second season with nearly 24 minutes of play and career highs at every level. His ability to score, rebound and hit triples makes him a threat for big fantasy plays every night.
Achiuwa averaged 11.7 points, 4.8 boards, 1.6 triples and 21 fantasy points over the final 14 games of the season. He played 29 minutes in Game 1, and he should see at least that much playing time in Game 2 with Toronto shorthanded.
Draymond Green might be overlooked on this list with more popular big and budget games around it, but it shouldn’t be ignored. Green can fill the stat sheet quickly thanks to his work on both sides of the court, and he had 12 points, nine pennies, six boards and three hits in the Game 1 win.
Even on a bad night, Nikola Jokic is always a DFS cheat code. He shot ineffectively on Saturday but still managed on 10/25/6 and scored a fantastic 55 points. He will have to be much better in Game 2 if Denver hopes to win one on the road. It was his worst game against Golden State all season after averaging a fantastic 62.4 points in two previous Bay matchups. I expect him to respond in Game 2.
chris butcher should see a significant increase in the use of shorthanded Raptors. Boucher has been a boom or bust option all season, but when he blows up, he blows up big.
Boucher has averaged nearly a fantastic point per game this season, and our model projects him for 28 minutes against the 76ers. The last time he had this many minutes was in the season finale against New York, and he responded with 21 points, seven boards and three pennies in 31 minutes.
jokic and Joel Embid are both PF and C eligible on FanDuel, meaning you can stack them if you want to spend a little. This is not a recommended strategy for all your builds, but if you play a lot of tournaments you should have some exposure to the Embiid/Jokic stack.