Best values on FFPC (2022 Fantasy Football)
For this episode, we’ll be looking at early values based on Average Draft Position (ADP) by RotoBaller for those who choose to participate in leagues under the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) umbrella.
In case you are unfamiliar, FFPC is a host that brings high payouts to its participants; that is, it is a high-stakes platform where many of the sharpest minds put their skills to the test.
Derek Carr (QB – LV): QB13
No complicated arguments are needed here. Since 2016, Derek Carr has finished as low as QB19 and as high as QB9 in what is considered the “fantasy season” (every week minus the last on the NFL schedule). Last year, from week 1 to 17, he finished QB12. Given the historical context of the less-than-stellar surrounding cast of players Carr has had to work with during this time, it’s fair to say objectively that he’s rated at/around his floor.
By our advanced QB statistics tool, it’s easy to see that Carr ranked favorably in deep passing just a season ago. Clearly, this man can throw a good ball. With the emergence of teammate Hunter Renfrow in 2021, a rumored return to health for Darren Waller, and the addition of Carr’s college teammate Davante Adams, all of which is keeping the Las Vegas caller from reaching or even to exceed, his previous high mark of QB9?
It’s the best group of skill position players he’s ever had to work with by any margin. Carr is your go-to QB target if you’re looking to wait for the position to complement value elsewhere on your roster.
James Conner (RB – ARI): RB15
As referenced in a recent articleJames Conner is a player who survived the offseason in that no significant running back competition was added to Arizona’s roster. By sharp football analysis, Conner ranked third in completion rate among all red zone RBs (minimum 15 rush attempts) with a 65% conversion rate. Essentially, two-thirds of the time he ran the ball near the goal line, it resulted in a touchdown. This success follows his success the previous year in 2020 with the Pittsburgh Steelers at a rate of 66% on 19 attempts.
Fantasy managers should always factor injury risk into their view of Conner. But assuming the Cardinals keep spelling it with Darrel Williams or rookie Keaontay Ingram, there’s no reason he can’t maintain his value as a high-volume touchdown producer. Considering his RB8 General Final in 2021 in points per reception (PPR), this is a slam-dunk value.
Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU): WR26
This one is quite simple. Whether he was the No. 1 target for Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks like Drew Brees/Tom Brady, scrambled in a body with Jared Goff under center in Los Angeles, or the alpha for lowly Texans in Houston, Brandin Cooks delivers when healthy. The production runs flawlessly. Don’t think about it too much.
this is how Brandin Cooks ended up scoring PPR throughout his career in four (4) different teams/circumstances.
when healthy, he is a lock for 1,000 yards and an average value of WR2 at minimum.
It’s not difficult. Stop being weird about Brandin Cooks. pic.twitter.com/pyHPP6AlO5
— 𝙃𝙚𝙧𝙢𝙨 🏈 (@HermsNFL) June 10, 2022
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI): TE15
Here is another simple bet to make. Chicago lost Allen Robinson in free agency and did little to tackle the pass-catching body of arms other than knocking out young gunslinger Justin Fields. Beyond receiver Darnell Mooney, the Bears offense has no one whose primary responsibility is to catch the ball beyond Cole Kmet. When looking for tight ends in small groups, it’s best to identify players with a lack of wide receiver competition around them that could take work away from them.
Even with Robinson in the fold in 2021, Kmet ranked seventh in target share among all the tight ends. His only real problem so far in his career is touchdowns. Since entering the league in 2020, Kmet has caught two touchdowns, both of which came in 2020. From the perspective of the positive regression to average in this area and the obvious target opportunity moving forward , there’s a great case for Kmet to take a Darren Waller-esque leap forward in 2022 and shatter TE15 expectations.
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