Fantasy Baseball Picks: Best DraftKings MLB DFS Goals, Values for April 19

With most teams now 10 games into the 2022 season, Tuesday’s 11-game slate is packed with top-notch starting pitches. Walker Buhler ($10,700) and Corbin Burnes ($10,500) are joined at the top by last year’s American League Cy Young Award winner, Robbie Ray ($9,800)and by Nathan Eovaldi ($9,500)which led all FIP-qualified AL starters (2.79).
Needless to say, choosing your pitchers tonight won’t be easy.
Define your DraftKings fantastic baseball lineups here: MLB Relay Throw $300,000 [$100K to 1st]
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LAUNCHER
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Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$10,500 – Burnes looked much more like himself in last Wednesday’s start against Baltimore, shooting seven innings and striking out eight. The right-hander’s immaculate control was on display, while he also generated a massive 18.6% strike rate on his 97 shots. Long story short, he performed as the reigning NL Cy Young award winner. As for Burnes’ opponent tonight, the Pirates are riding a shaky .332 BABIP with league-average offensive success in April, but the team has no explosive advantage with just a .113 ISO. There is nothing to fear here.
Value
Patrick Sandoval, Los Angeles Angels to Houston Astros$6,900 – While Kyle Gibson ($6,600) is also intriguing below $7,000, my eyes focus on Sandoval as the perfect combination of wage savings and Tuesday’s upside. Obviously, the game is tough, but Sandoval has shown he has the wherewithal to succeed against any formation. In fact, of the 153 pitchers who have pitched at least 90 innings since the start of 2021, the left-hander’s 15.2% batting rate is ninth-best in baseball, higher than the number posted by Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole or Freddy. Peralta. Sandoval didn’t allow a deserved run over six in his first outing in 2022 and I think he’s ready for a breakout campaign, if he can stay healthy.
INTERIOR
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Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamonds to Washington nationals$5,200 – Suggesting a full stack of Diamondbacks hurts my stomach, but I can definitely keep building a few lineups around Marte. The batter hasn’t started 2022 very well, but tonight’s game should be what will change his season. Joan Adon ($5,700) was beaten in his first two starts. The 23-year-old gave up 10 earned runs in nine innings of work, putting Adon’s xERA at an ugly 10.50. The RHP also managed to concede an opposing barrel roll on 19.4% of their 31 batted ball events – the highest qualifying rate in the league. Marte should be able to do damage.
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Manny Machado, San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds$4,600 – Machado has always hit the left-handed throw well. For his career, the veteran infielder sports a .855 OPS and 128 wRC+ in the division. That’s why it’s no shock that Machado started the season with .600/.667/1.200 in his first 12 plate appearances against lefties. Will this level of success continue all season? Of course not. However, Reiver Sanmartin ($7,300) is a rookie with a below-average fastball and 88.9% career zone contact rate. He doesn’t have the raw stuff to overwhelm Machado and I think the Padres’ 3B will take advantage of that.
Value
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles to Oakland Athletics$3,600 – Mountcastle started 2022 a little slow, but a clash against Cole Irvin ($6,300) should be exactly what the doctor ordered. Last season, in 209 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, Mountcastle recorded a .261 ISO and a 120 wRC+. As for Irvin, the southpaw’s contact-oriented nature backfired in his first two outings in 2022, where he allowed opposing RHBs to compile a mind-blowing .676 slugging percentage. It’s a direct result of Irvin already giving up four home runs in just 11.2 innings of work. The Orioles should be able to post some twisted numbers on Tuesday.
Value
Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $2,900 – It’s just too cheap for Tellez. While the first baseman may not be a household name, Tellez enters Tuesday’s slate with a career .215 ISO. The man can punch and he’s demonstrated that skill to start 2022, Tellez posting a .385 xwOBA in his first 33 board appearances of the season. Tellez is also left-handed, which is all you need to be viable against JT Brubaker ($5,900). In Brubaker’s last 12 starts, he’s faced 132 LHBs combined. These hitters reduced .311/.379/.664 with a .434 wOBA. Yeah.
OUTSIDE FIELD
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Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies to Colorado Rockies$5,900 – I think Kyle Freeland ($5,600) is ready for a road trip. The Rockies left-hander is set to make his third start of the season on Tuesday, with all three coming at Coors Field. It’s a bit of a problem. Dating back to early 2021, Freeland has been beaten at altitude. In fact, in those 13 appearances, Freeland gave up 1.6 home runs per nine and a whopping .376 wOBA opponent. That’s all music to Castellanos’ ears, who got off to another flying start in 2022. The outfielder has a .417 xwOBA and a 153 wRC+ in his first 46 board appearances, while a career .896 OPS against lefties isn’t too shabby, either.
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Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $4,800 – Even before clubbing a Grand Slam on Monday night, there were signs that Yelich’s bat was coming back to life. While the surface numbers so far in 2022 aren’t blowing anyone away, Yelich’s forward profile is bright, as the LHB has posted a .417 xwOBA in his first 43 board appearances of the season. He also had 17 of his 22 hit ball events over 95 mph – a rate of 77.3% which is the highest of any skilled player in baseball. Given Brubaker’s well-documented struggles with left-handed hitters, Yelich is perhaps my favorite asset on the entire roster.
Value
Daulton Varsho, Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, $3,600 – While I wouldn’t go so far as to say that all of Arizona’s formation is down to positive regression, Varsho hit the ball better than his numbers suggest. In fact, although Varsho hits a meager .296 in nine games, his expected shot percentage sits at .431. This also aligns with his expected batting average and expected wOBA. Heck, even if you don’t buy into advanced analytics, just know that Varsho is left-handed and will strike first against Adon on Tuesday. The LHBs are down .385/.484/.692 against Adon in 2022.
Value
Marcel Ozuna, Atlanta Braves to Los Angeles Dodgers$2,700 – I have no idea what is going on here. I understand Buehler has to start for the Dodgers, but every member of the Braves has had their salary snuffed out by about $1,500 since Monday night. It’s nonsense, especially when it comes to Ozuna, who has an ISO of .313 and an xwOBA of .405 in his first 50 plate appearances in 2022. It’s a bad game, but somehow a price worse.
STACKING TEAMS
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – There are few teams that use squads as effectively as the Brewers and that’s definitely bad news for the aforementioned Brubaker. Between Yelich, Tellez, Kolten Wong ($4,100), Omar Narvaez ($3,300) and Jace Peterson ($3,300), Milwaukee’s roster should have at least five left-handed bats tonight. For a starter who notably struggles in the split, it’s a nightmare scenario.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals – I can not believe it. In 1,700 words, I convinced myself to stack the D-Backs. Here are the chips. First, Adon had his issues with LHBs on starts, giving up a .507 wOBA in the split. It opens the door to people like Marte, Varsho, David Peralta ($3,700), Seth Beer ($3,400) and Pavin Smith ($3,000). Second, the Nationals’ bullpen was horrible in 2022, posting a 5.16 ERA, and now they’ll be in the second leg of a doubleheader. Third, Diamondbacks bats are very cheap and no one else will want to use them.
Define your DraftKings fantastic baseball lineups here: MLB Relay Throw $300,000 [$100K to 1st]
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