MLB DFS pitcher report: April 8, evening slate games, values, stacks
In the chart below, I’ve listed the 10 starters projected for the evening slate in the April 8 daily games. I’ve included their daily top two sites salary, each pitcher’s last start date, and number of innings pitched. If I could find height count data, I added that info. Additionally, I’ve provided each pitcher’s expected strikeout rate (based on my projections for the entire season) and play odds on SI Sportsbook.
Being successful in everyday fantasy baseball starts with starting pitching inventory. The goal is to find undervalued weapons, potential aces that make a difference, and pitchers to stack the lineups against.
The start of the 2022 baseball season brings a new challenge to daily players due to shortened spring training. As a result, most pitchers will struggle to pitch five innings on their first outing, resulting in fewer impact scores by ace pitchers and a lower chance of winning.
Max Scherzer against Josiah Gray
Scherzer appeared on track to deliver a deep inning start in his first appearance after pitching six relief innings (two runs, three hits and seven strikes) on March 27. Unfortunately, a hamstring issue has kept him from pitching for the past 11 days. He’s 1-0 in three games against his former team with a 5.27 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. I expect him to pitch at least five innings while listed at lower percentage. Based on his high salary, I would look to beat him on this list. Scherzer has the highest strikeout potential.
Gray will be an attractive pitcher to face this week because of his struggles in spring training (10 runs, 14 basers and five home runs in 9.2 innings with 13 strikeouts). In his limited time in the majors, Gray has 5.48 ERA, 1.358 WHIP and 76 strikeouts in 70.2 innings. Despite his twisted stats, he has a winning resume in the minor league (14-5 with 2.41 ERA and 228 strikeouts in 198 innings. If Gray stays out of trouble, he should pitch six innings. I consider him a player countercurrent with low composition.
Sean Manee vs. Merrill Kelly
The trade to the Padres should be an overall win for Manaea in wins. Last season, his strikeout rate (9.7) was a career high while maintaining a favorable walk rate (2.1). However, his bad days had to do with giving up too many long balls (1.3 per nine). In four spring training appearances, he gave up eight runs, 18 runners and no home runs in 15.1 innings. Manaea went just 3.2 innings in his last start, but he looked sharp on March 29 against the Dodgers (one run, two hits and seven strikeouts in 5.2 innings). I like Manaea better at the top of the pitching pool.
Kelly began stepping onto the draft boards in early April after two outstanding performances in spring training (one run, one hit, no walks and 13 strikeouts over seven innings). Despite his success, Kelly has a low strikeout rate (7.7) during his brief major league career with a 4.27 ERA and some risk against home runs (1.3 per nine). ). His lower salary and success indicate he is a chalk cheater while still being on track to pitch five innings. The survey says “yes”, but this game is not that easy.
Jose Berrios vs. Jon Gray
In three spring starts, Berrios allowed 10 runs, 20 runners and six strikeouts in eight innings. However, he showed growth when he came out on April 2 (two runs in five innings with three strikeouts). Berrios offers a high-scoring team with the core skills needed to produce games that make a difference. He has a 5.47 ERA, 1.291 WHIP and 36 strikeouts in 26.1 innings against the Rangers. On the plus side, Berrios dominated the pitching at Rogers Center (5-2 with a 2.44 ERA, three walks and 57 strikeouts in 55.1 innings). I throw away his spring stats while leaning more on his success at home. Berrios is very much alive for me in everyday space.
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Colorado’s breakout should be a win for Gray. Surprisingly, he has a worse ERA on the road (4.65) than in his home career (4.54). In two starts in the spring, Gray allowed two runs and eight base runners in six scoreless innings and 10 strikeouts. He’s 2-0 against the Blue Jays with a 2.63 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. It’s certainly a more powerful starting lineup in Toronto, which puts Gray at a disastrous disadvantage. He is a possible one-off at the back for Merrill Kelly.
charlie morton against Reiver Sanmartin
The Braves are big favorites (-188) in the table while coming off a game-loss to the Reds. In his only start this spring, Morton went 4.2 hitless innings with five strikeouts on March 27. Atlanta pitched him in a minor league game on April 2, indicating Morton was ready to throw nearly 90 pitches. He’s 6-8 against Cincinnati with a 4.41 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 104 innings. Most of his failures came earlier in his career for the Pirates when his arm had not reached elite level. Morton should win this game while being a higher percentage.
Sanmartin made two brief appearances (one run and one hit in four no-walk innings and two strikeouts) in spring training. Unfortunately, I can’t see him making it past round five, so he’s on my avoid list. In six years as a minor, Sanmartin posted a 3.22 ERA and 403 strikeouts in 427.2 innings.
Reid Detmers vs. Jake Odorizzi
In my pre-2022 draft prep, Detmers feels like an upside-down escape arm high. He supported my thoughts with success in two starts in spring training (two runs in 5.2 scoreless innings on walks and 11 strikeouts). However, last year Detmer struggled in his five appearances with the Angels (7.40 ERA, five home runs and 19 strikeouts in 20.2 innings). His arm electrically shone upside down in his freshman year as a minor at AA and AAA (3.19 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 62.0 innings). Detmers has the ability to pay-at-bat at his salary level, but his cap can be 75 pitches or about five innings.
I can’t expect Odorizzi to pitch more than four innings based on his only spring training debut on March 22 (no runs on two innings with one strikeout). Christian Javier can be worth being a cheat starter as he can lean on Odorizzi while providing high punching ability. Javier pitched two shutout innings with three strikeouts in his lone appearance. Unfortunately, his salary ($7,300/$7,600) is too high.
My three worst bullpen seem to be Nationals, Diamondbacks and Rangers. I would look for one of these three matchups to deliver the best score after round five.
Stacks of chalk: Mets, Braves and Blue Jays
Sneaky Stacks: Padres and Astros
High value hitters
VS- Jorge Alfaro
1B- Dominique Smith
2B- Robinson Cano
3B- mike mustakas
SS – Jeremy Pena
OF – Jeff McNeil
OF – Cavan Biggio
OF – Brad Miller
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